Saturday Soccer Spotlight: EPL Title Race

The EPL season is 27 games in out of 38, and most would admit that it is a 2 team race for the title.  Currently Manchester United is in first and Arsenal 4 points behind in second.  As a Manchester United fan, I would generally be very comfortable at this point in the season with that kind of a lead, but this has been quite a strange season.  Let's take a look at both teams' chances.

Record: 17-9-1

Goal Difference: +36

The biggest thing that worries me about United is their inability to finish teams off.  They have a disturbing habit of winning small (except for the occasional 5-0 thrashing that skews the stats a bit).  They are particularly prone to giving up cheap goals, and away from home they don't play well at all; reverting to a defensive strategy that is more likely to earn a draw.  And that has never been a characteristic of United.  They always go out to win, and this acceptance of away draws bothers me.

However, they are in first place.  And at this point in the season, that is no laughing matter.  And they still have highly experienced and talented players.  Vidic has been a great captain, Nani has been superb all year, the strikers are getting better (Berbatov, Rooney, and Hernandez), and Smalling has proven capable in place of Ferdinand.  What worries me is the midfield.  There is no dynamic quality other than Nani, and he plays more of a strikers' role these days.  United desperately needs Valencia and Park back so other players like Carrick and Fletcher can go back to there normal roles.  All of this is crucial as they head into a brutal ending schedule: going to Liverpool, Chelsea, and Arsenal, as well as playing host to Chelsea all in the final 11 games.

 

Record: 17-5-5

Goal Difference: +30

The biggest thing for Arsenal is consistency.  For almost as long as I've been following the EPL (except for the "Invicibles" season) Arsenal has had major problems with consistency.  They can obviously play with, and beat, the best teams, passing them to death with "total football."  But when they lose to teams like West Bromwich and Newcastle you have to wonder.  And then they also gave up the biggest comeback ever in the EPL.  Up 4-0 in the second half to Newcastle, they allowed 4 goals and ended up drawing the game.  This has to be partially blamed on Wenger for his trust in such young players.

Injuries have also played a part in Arsenal's season.  But that happens with every team, so it's hardly an excuse.  However, the Captain, Fabregas, could be out for a few games, which could affect them.  But in the EPL he will probably only miss the Sunderland game.  And Nasri and van Persie have been doing more than enough to get Arsenal past them.

The biggest positive that Arsenal has over Manchester United is their schedule.  They only really have 2 big games left, and both are at home: against Manchester United (a possible title decider) and Liverpool.   Away to Tottenham could also be a big one, and Fulham is always tricky at Craven Cottage.  But these are all games that Arsenal should be able to win.

So I think the pressure is on United, with so many big games left, to go out and play attacking, risky football.  They can't really afford to continue drawing all of their away games.  But as a Manchester fan, I certainly will pick them to bring home a record 19th title.  Who's your title pick?